Alcoholic Brewery (000799) Quick Review of Major Events: Off-season Performance

Alcoholic Brewery (000799) Quick Review of Major Events: Off-season Performance
Matters: On the evening of July 08, 2019, the company released the 2019 semi-annual performance report, and it is expected that the company’s revenue will be 7 in the first half of 2019.0.9 billion (+35.41%), net profit attributable to mother 1.5.6 billion (+36.34%). Comment: Q2 performance rebounded, internal reference performance was dazzling. According to the performance report, we calculated that 19Q2 苏州桑拿网 revenue was 3.6.3 billion (+40.7%), net profit attributable to mother is 0.8.3 billion (+59.6%).Revenue was 30 in Q1 19Q1.46%, net profit attributable to mother 16.18%, 36 revenue in 18Q2 a year.6%, net profit attributable to mother 13.55%, compared with the past, both revenue and profit have shown accelerated growth. We believe that there are several reasons: the first and second quarters of advertising expenses dropped compared with the first four quarters; second, the company’s internal sales volume in the first half of 19 basically exceeded the sales volume of 200 tons in 18 years, so the internal sales volume doubled.Not big; Third, excessive brand marketing expenditures such as 19Q1 tastings, wine giving, and advertising costs affect the net interest rate of the internal reference, and the net interest rate of the internal reference in the second quarter improved from the first quarter; fourth, it is expected that the channel end will be trade-based sales from the pastThe transition to the direct control terminal was initially preliminary in the second quarter. Fifth, the product structure continued to be optimized. In the second quarter, the proportion of alcoholic series improved in the first quarter (we expect it to account for less than 70%), and the growth rate accelerated in the first quarter.We expect the growth rate of the alcoholics series to exceed 30% in the second quarter; the internal reference growth rate will improve from the first quarter and the proportion will improve (we estimate that the proportion is still 20%), but we estimate that the second quarter growth rate will still be more than 50%. The goal of tens of billions of struggles, the brand matrix formed the main line of the company’s marketing work in 2019: deepen the channels, consolidate the foundation, win the terminal, and promote the nationalization of the market.At present, the company has formed a three-brand combination of “internal reference”, “drinker” and “Xiangquan”, of which “internal reference” requires price stabilization, “drinker” requires both volume and price to rise, and “Xiangquan” requires incremental increase.The company highlights the strategic single products, fully focuses on the internal reference, the red altar alcoholic wine, and the heritage version of the alcoholic wine three strategic single products, and the key resources are tilted.On this basis, the Red Alcoholics series has been extended to launch new products such as “Red Altar 20” and “Red Altar 30”, and Xiangquan has launched a series of incremental products. At present, the company divides the national market into core, strategy, focus, market development, and resources are concentrated in the headquarters of Hunan (has sunk to all county-level cities), and concentrated in the strategies of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, East China, and ChinaThe market, outside the province, such as Hebei, Shandong has achieved full coverage of prefecture-level cities.The company has a short-term target of 3 billion, a medium-term target of 5 billion, and a long-term target of 10 billion. On the whole, we are optimistic about the company’s positioning as a sub-high-end alcoholic series and the support of COFCO after its inception, and forecast EPS 0 in 2019-2021.89/1.14/1.44 yuan, corresponding to PE28 / 22/17, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: the demand forecast of the liquor industry; the adjustment of the liquor industry policy; the sales of core products are less than expected.

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