BYD (002594) Review of 2019 Third Quarter Report: Short-term pressure on performance awaits heavy volume of new models

BYD (002594) Review of 2019 Third Quarter Report: Short-term pressure on performance awaits heavy volume of new models

Revenue from Q1 to Q3 2019 reached 938.

200 million, a five-year growth of 5.

4%; net profit attributable to mother 15.

70,000 yuan, an annual increase of 3.

1%, net profit after deduction 5

9 ppm, an increase of 455 in ten years.

8%.

Among them, 2019Q3 revenue was 316.

4 trillion, down 9 a year.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

2 trillion, a year down 88.

6%, net profit -1 after deduction.

500 million, a year down -130.

1%.

Analysis and judgment: Q3 new energy vehicle sales growth caused negative revenue growth.

4%, but single Q3 revenue fell 9 year-on-year.

2%, an increase of 8 compared to the second half of Q2.

4%, revenue growth rate is positive and negative, mainly due to supplementary decline caused the company’s Q3 new energy vehicle sales fell by 31.

5%.

The expansion of revenue scale and the decline in gross profit margin caused significant pressure on performance. The growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in Q3 2019 was -88.

6%, compared with +87 in 2019Q2.

1%.

Inflation of gross profit margin but expense control strengthened The company’s gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 201916.

0%, a decrease of 0 per year.

4pct, we believe that it is mainly affected by the narrowing of the gross profit margin of automobiles under the sluggish industry demand; the net profit margin.

0%, a decrease of 0 per year.

4pct, mainly affected by the decline in gross profit margin.

In terms of expenses, the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, research and development expense ratio, and financial expense ratio are 3 respectively.

6% / 3.

4% / 4.

1% / 2.

1%, year -1.

1pct / + 0.

4pct / + 0.

2pct / -0.

4pct.

In a single quarter, the gross profit margin in 2019Q3 was 13.

9%, a decrease of 3 per year.3pct, net interest rate is 0.

8%, down 2 every year.

9pc; in terms of expenses, sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, research and development expense ratio, and financial expense ratio are 3.

3% / 3.

4% / 4.

twenty one.

6% a year -1.

1pct / + 0.

8pct / + 0.

2pct / -0.

9pct, ring than -0.

6pct / + 0.

82pct / + 0.

5 points / -0.

9 points.

Among them, sales expenses decreased by 31 every year.

3%, research and development expenses and financial expenses continued to decline, reflecting the company’s expense control has been strengthened.

The increase in management expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in budget expenditures of management staff.

Focus on new energy vehicle business: short-term new model-driven growth, long-term focus on increasing city share, gradually expanding the company’s development, focusing on new energy vehicle business, transforming the continuous development of research and development, the company has realized new energy vehicle industry chain in power 北京夜生活网 batteries and IGBT, etc.The technology is autonomous and controllable, and the product line is completely complete, covering both pure electric and hybrid technology routes, from low-end to mid-end, from A00 to B, to meet a variety of consumer needs.

The supplementary tax rebate caused short-term pressure on the company’s performance, but in the long run, it promotes the advantages and disadvantages of the new energy vehicle industry. The company is committed to introducing the independent controllable advantages of the new energy vehicle industry technology and the entire product line to gain more market share.

According to Car Home and other websites, the company’s new vehicles listed this year include BYD e1EV, S2 EV, Song Pro / Song Pro DM / Song Pro EV, e2 EV, e3 EV, etc., of which: Song Pro is listed in June 2019北京夜网,In September, the number of traffic insurance registrations reached 2,886 / 7,233 / 9,366 vehicles, which quickly showed competitiveness; e2 was launched in August 2019, and the number of traffic insurance registrations in September increased rapidly to 1,301, which is expected to gradually climb up gradually; e3 It has just been launched recently, positioning it as a pure electric A-Class, and introducing new Qin EV and other new models.

The double-point policy relay supplemented the tax refund to ensure the growth of the new energy vehicle industry and the company’s new product cycle. We believe that the company’s new energy vehicle sales are expected to rebound in 2020.

Investment suggestion We believe that the company’s new energy vehicle sales are shifting to the launch of new models and the volume forecast is picking up. In the future, it is expected to promote the independent controllable technology advantages of core components and improve the product line to gain more market share. Adjust the profit forecast: Expected 2019-2021 revenue growth from +15.

7% / + 18.

1% / + 18.

6% is adjusted to +5.

2% / + 13.

0% / + 13.

At 7%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers increased by +16.

6% / + 32.

8% / + 46.

4% is adjusted to -1.

9% / + 37.

9% / + 19.

6% earnings per share from 1.

19 yuan / 1.

58 yuan / 2.

31 yuan is adjusted to 1.

00 yuan / 1.

38 yuan / 1.65 yuan, corresponding to the current PE 52 times / 37 times / 31 times.

With reference to the company’s historical PE range center 35-40 times, in view of the company’s launch of a number of new models this year, give the company a PE estimate of 38 times in 2020, with a target price of 58.

46 yuan down to 52.

44. Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risks suggest that the sales volume of the new energy automobile industry is lower than expected, the sales of new models are lower than expected, and the market share is lower than expected.

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